Alabama, the heavy favorite with spreads as high as 23.5 points, fell to Vanderbilt in a game that left fans and analysts in disbelief. Alabama, still on a high from beating Georgia last week, was assumed to cruise through this matchup. Vanderbilt had other plans, delivering a surprising 40-35 victory on their home turf.
Vanderbilt started strong, and despite Alabama’s efforts to rally back, the underdogs held on to secure an unforgettable win. Let’s break down the key stats and moments that defined this shocking upset.
Win Probability Chart
The chart below provides the win probability throughout the game. The probability swung back and forth, often feeling like Alabama would take over, showing the swings in momentum. Each significant play that impacted win probability over 20% is annotated with text on the chart. Touchdown are shown with the dotted line. This creates a visual story of how Vanderbilt managed to hold off Alabama and secure an unexpected victory. This graph allows us to pinpoint the plays that had the most impact on the game’s outcome.
Player PPA
The chart below breaks down the top-performing players in the game based on two key metrics: Cumulative PPA (Points Per Attempt) and Average PPA. The left side highlights the players who had the most overall impact throughout the game, while the right side showcases those with the highest efficiency on a per-play basis. This comparison offers a deeper insight into which players were not only consistent contributors but also made the most of each opportunity they had on the field.
Looking at the data, we can see some intriguing findings:
- Cumulative PPA Standouts:
- Diego Pavia (Vanderbilt QB) had the highest cumulative PPA, showing his significant role in leading Vanderbilt’s offense.
- Despite the loss, Alabama’s Jalen Milroe (Alabama QB) made his presence felt with a notable cumulative PPA, showing that Alabama had strong offensive moments despite coming up short. And they were fighting against the fact that Vanderbilt would not give them the ball back, having a huge advantage in time of possession.
- Eli Stowers (Vanderbilt TE) rounds out the top three, showing Vanderbilt’s versatility in their offensive strategy.
- Average PPA Efficiency:
- On the efficiency front, Alabama’s C.J. Dippre (TE) tops the chart with the highest average PPA, suggesting that when he was involved, he made significant yardage gains.
- Vanderbilt’s Kamrean Johnson (TE) and Kobe Prentice (WR) were also remarkably efficient, indicating that Vanderbilt’s success wasn’t just about frequent plays but also their high-impact plays when they did occur. This contrast in cumulative versus average PPA highlights how Vanderbilt managed both consistency and high-impact efficiency to secure their win.
Team PPA
This graphic provides a detailed comparison of both offensive and defensive Points Per Attempt (PPA) values for Alabama and Vanderbilt. The left panel shows the offensive PPA comparison across different situations, such as first, second, and third downs, as well as passing and rushing plays. The right panel breaks down the defensive PPA, highlighting each team’s performance in stopping the opposing offense across the same scenarios. These insights help us understand where each team excelled or struggled during the game.
The graphic shows:
- Offensive Third Down PPA: Vanderbilt clearly outperformed Alabama on third downs, shown by a much higher PPA. This efficiency in crucial situations played a key role in extending drives and keeping Alabama’s defense on the field.
- Offensive Passing: Vanderbilt’s passing offense stood out with a high PPA, exceeding Alabama’s output. This metric reflects Vanderbilt’s success in their air attack, which likely contributed to their ability to sustain drives and score.
- Defensive Third Down: Alabama’s defense struggled significantly on third downs, as indicated by their highly negative PPA. This inefficiency allowed Vanderbilt to convert crucial plays and maintain offensive momentum throughout the game.
- Overall Performance: While both teams have positive overall offensive PPA, Vanderbilt’s is slightly higher. However, on the defensive side, Vanderbilt managed to contain Alabama more effectively, showing a less negative overall defensive PPA. This balanced performance on both sides of the ball was essential in securing Vanderbilt’s surprising victory.
Summary
This game marks Kalen DeBoer’s first loss as Alabama’s head coach, a crushing defeat that comes on the heels of replacing the legendary Nick Saban. Taking over the reins from a coach with such a storied legacy was never going to be easy, and this loss to Vanderbilt—a team Alabama had never previously lost to—adds an unexpected challenge to DeBoer’s journey. How he and his team respond to this setback will be crucial in defining the new era of Alabama football.
Will Alabama use this as fuel to come back stronger, or will the cracks revealed in this game deepen under pressure? The fanbase, unaccustomed to losing games like this, will certainly be watching DeBoer’s response closely. How he manages to regroup the team, address the defensive struggles on third downs, and recapture the offensive dominance Alabama is known for, will set the tone for the remainder of his tenure. This is a pivotal moment for both DeBoer and Alabama, one that will test the resolve of the entire program.
