On Oklahoma’s first SEC Road game, September 28, 2024, the Oklahoma Sooners traveled to Auburn for what would become one Sooner fans remember for a long time. Despite being the underdogs according to the betting lines, especially with their top 5 WRs our, starting a freshman quarterback on the road for the first time since Troy Aikman’s days, Oklahoma pulled off a stunning 27-21 victory over the Auburn Tigers.
The game was a rollercoaster of emotions for fans on both sides. Auburn seemed to have control in the first half, leading 14-7 at halftime. However, the Sooners came roaring back in the fourth quarter, with a little bit of Sooner Magic, outscoring the Tigers 17-7 to clinch the win.
Quarter Scoring Breakdown
Auburn jumped out to an early lead but Oklahoma scored 17 unanswered to finish the game. Overcoming being down 21-10.
Betting Line Heading Into Game
Most betting providers had Oklahoma down as a 2 point dog. With the Over/Under around 43, meaning the expectation was about a low scoring, 21-23 type game. Not too far off.
Win Probability by Play
The chart below shows the flow of the game. Here you see how the Kip Six play really changed the game for the Sooners. There was a 50% change in win probability!
Win Contributions by Players and By Team
This graphic shows two different ways of evaluating player performance using PPA (Predicted Points Added) for the Oklahoma Sooners and Auburn Tigers. I like comparing the players by Cumulative PPA and Average PPA as you can see players that had a big impact overall, as they were in a lot of plays, like the quarterbacks, and the players that had large average PPAs, meaning they had outsized impacts when they were in the game.
Cumulative PPA (left chart):
- Payton Thorne (QB, Auburn) had the highest cumulative impact on the game.
- Michael Hawkins Jr. (QB, Oklahoma) was the second-most impactful player overall.
- The top players are a mix from both teams, with Auburn having more players in the top spots.
- It’s notable that both quarterbacks are at the top, showing their significant influence on the game.
Average PPA (right chart):
- Javian Hester (WR, Oklahoma) had the highest average impact per play.
- Rivaldo Fairweather (TE, Auburn) and Luke Deal (TE, Auburn) follow closely.
- This chart shows more variation between the teams, with some Oklahoma players ranking higher than in the cumulative chart.
- The average PPA gives insight into efficiency, showing which players made the most of their opportunities.
Key observations:
- Tight ends from both teams (Fairweather and Deal for Auburn, Sharp for Oklahoma) played significant roles in the game.
- While Auburn’s quarterback (Payton Thorne) had the highest cumulative impact, Oklahoma’s wide receiver (Javian Hester) was the most efficient on a per-play basis.
- Auburn seems to have had more players with significant cumulative contributions, which aligns with their stronger defensive showing from the previous graphic.
- Oklahoma’s top performers (like Hester and Hawkins) were very efficient, which explains how they managed to win despite Auburn’s overall stronger defensive performance.
Team Expected Win Impact
This graphic provides a detailed comparison of Oklahoma and Auburn’s performance in various offensive and defensive categories using PPA (Predicted Points Added) values. Here’s an interpretation of the key points:
Offense:
- Third Down: Oklahoma has a significant advantage in third down offense, indicating they were much more effective at converting on third downs.
- Second Down: Auburn has a slight edge on second down offense.
- First Down: Auburn shows better performance on first down plays.
- Rushing: Oklahoma has a small advantage in rushing offense.
- Passing: Both teams are strong in passing, with Auburn slightly ahead.
- Overall: Oklahoma has a slight edge in overall offensive performance.
It’s a bye week for Oklahoma, and then they head to Texas for the Red River Shootout in Dallas.
