In a dramatic game that swung back and forth until the very end, Kentucky managed to eke out a 20-17 victory over Ole Miss on September 28, 2024. Both teams showed resilience, trading blows across all four quarters. Kentucky initially trailed but seized the momentum in the second half, especially in the fourth quarter, where their defense clamped down on Ole Miss, sealing the win.
Ole Miss jumped out to an early lead with a 7-3 first quarter, only to see Kentucky claw back in the second, taking a slim 10-7 lead at halftime. The third quarter belonged to Ole Miss as they surged ahead, outscoring Kentucky 10-3. However, Kentucky responded in the fourth quarter, scoring 7 points while keeping Ole Miss off the scoreboard, securing a hard-fought victory.
The game was defined by pivotal moments, including a 48-yard pass from Jaxson Dart to Tre Harris, which dramatically shifted the win probability in Kentucky’s favor by 43%. Critical stops, incomplete passes, and strategic penalties also played a significant role, with both teams’ offenses and defenses influencing the game’s outcome.
Data Visualizations
Win Probability Chart:
This chart captures the ebb and flow of the game as each team’s probability of winning fluctuated with key plays. Early on, Kentucky’s win probability showed an upward trend, indicating their early control. However, Ole Miss took the momentum back during the third quarter. The turning point came around play 111, where a 48-yard pass from Jaxson Dart to Tre Harris swung the probability by 43% in favor of Kentucky. The final moments of the game saw a rollercoaster of changes, especially with significant stops and strategic plays by both teams, before Kentucky managed to lock in their victory.
Top Players by Cumulative and Average PPA:
In the left chart, we see the players who made the biggest impact over the game. Brock Vandagriff (Kentucky QB) and Jaxson Dart (Ole Miss QB) had the highest cumulative PPAs, indicating that they were the focal points of their teams’ offensive efforts. Dane Key (Kentucky WR) and Tre Harris (Ole Miss WR) also had strong performances, reflecting the passing-heavy nature of this matchup.
The right chart, average PPA, shows Caden Prieskorn (Ole Miss TE) at the top making a huge impact, demonstrating that while he wasn’t involved in as many plays, his contributions were highly effective. Willie Rodriguez (Kentucky TE) also showed high efficiency, possibly contributing key yards in clutch situations.
Offense and Defense PPA Comparison:
In the offensive PPA chart, Ole Miss had a slight advantage overall, particularly in passing plays, indicating a more aggressive aerial attack. Kentucky’s offensive highlight was their third-down efficiency, which was significantly higher than Ole Miss’s, showcasing their ability to convert in crucial moments. Defensively, Kentucky excelled on third downs, limiting Ole Miss’s ability to maintain drives, while Ole Miss’s passing defense was more effective, reflecting their attempts to neutralize Kentucky’s passing game.
Betting Commentary
Coming into this game, Kentucky was a massive underdog. All three major sportsbooks—ESPN Bet, Bovada, and DraftKings—had Kentucky listed at a staggering -25.5 spread, indicating that they were not expected to come close to Ole Miss. In fact, Bovada had Kentucky as a +1300 underdog in the moneyline, which translates to extremely slim chances of victory in the eyes of the bookmakers. Most bettors would have confidently backed Ole Miss, expecting them to win by at least 26 points.
As for the over/under, the consensus hovered around 50 points across the different sportsbooks. Given the offensive capabilities of both teams, this seemed like a fair line. However, with a final score of 20-17, the game ended up totaling 37 points, well below the expected mark. Bettors who took the “under” walked away with a win, as the game turned out to be more of a defensive struggle than an offensive shootout.
What Happened? An Underdog Victory
Kentucky came out as a huge underdog but defied the odds in a stunning way. The final score of 20-17 was not just a narrow win; it was a dramatic statement from a team that everyone expected to be dominated. Kentucky wasn’t supposed to be able to keep pace with Ole Miss, let alone beat them on their home turf. The spread implied that Ole Miss would control every aspect of the game, but Kentucky flipped the script.
Ole Miss appeared to have the upper hand early, especially after jumping to an early 7-3 lead in the first quarter. By halftime, though, Kentucky had started to find its rhythm, holding a 10-7 lead that surely had bettors starting to sweat. The third quarter saw Ole Miss claw back and take control, setting up what many thought would be a straightforward closeout in the fourth. But Kentucky’s defense stepped up, and their offense managed to grind out the necessary yards to secure the win in the final moments.
The game turned into a dogfight, one that Kentucky unexpectedly excelled in. They outperformed Ole Miss in the most critical moments, particularly on third downs, as reflected in the PPA comparison. Kentucky’s ability to convert key plays was a major factor in why they kept the game close and ultimately clinched the victory. This performance caught everyone off guard, given the massive 25.5-point spread that had been set against them.
Why This Upset Happened
So, why did Kentucky, an enormous underdog, pull off this upset? It comes down to execution in key moments and defensive tenacity. The visualizations reveal that Kentucky was exceptional in third-down situations, outperforming Ole Miss offensively and limiting Ole Miss’s ability to convert on defense. Additionally, while Ole Miss had a strong passing game, Kentucky’s defense stepped up in the fourth quarter, managing to halt Ole Miss’s late-game efforts and solidify their lead.
From a betting perspective, this game was a nightmare for those who took Ole Miss to cover the spread. It serves as a classic reminder of the unpredictability in college football and how even the most lopsided matchups on paper can play out very differently on the field. Kentucky didn’t just beat the spread; they demolished the expectations set by oddsmakers, coming away with a morale-boosting win.
This game wasn’t just a win; it was a statement that Kentucky can’t be counted out, even when all the odds are stacked against them.
